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The problem is that your x-axis values are not the actual numbers plotted on the line. They are essentially text, so the first 'x' is actually a 1 and not

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Or just looking for a way to evaluate the fit of the line to your data or, conversely, the fit of your data to the line? If it's the second one, you can choose the "options" tab in the add trendline dialog, and choose to have excel display the equation of the trendline and the r-squared value. R-squared is a measure of the goodness of fit of the line; it's approximate interpretation is that it describes the percentage of the variation in the data that is explained by the equation.

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From the above discussion of trends in random data with known variancewe know the distribution of calculated trends to be expected from random trendless data. The use of a linear trend line has been the subject of criticism, leading to a search for alternative approaches to avoid its use in model estimation. One of the alternative approaches involves unit root tests and the cointegration technique in econometric studies.

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