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Contact What is real options theory? Definition and meaning Real options theory is a modern theory on how to make decisions regarding investments when the future is uncertain.

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But there are, it seems, at least as many customers who are dissatisfied with this tool. The reasons for this high defection rate seem just as sensible as the reasons for using the tool and are usually based on technical grounds.

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The standard theory it modifies is the Expect Net Present Value theory of investment decision. According to NPV theory the future cash flows of an investment project are estimated and if there is uncertainty about those cash flow the expected value determined.

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Option pricing theory uses variables stock price, exercise price, volatility, interest rate, time to expiration to theoretically value an option. Essentially, it provides an estimation of an option's fair value which traders incorporate into their strategies to maximize profits. Some commonly used models to value options are Black-Scholesbinomial option pricingand Monte-Carlo simulation. Understanding Option Pricing Theory The primary goal of option pricing theory is to calculate the probability that an option will be exercised, or be in-the-money ITMat expiration.

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Types of real options[ edit ] Simple Examples Investment This simple example shows the relevance of the real option to delay investment and wait for further information, and is adapted from "Investment Example". Consider a firm that has the option to invest in a new factory. It can invest this year or next year. The question is: when should the firm invest?

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